An Unlikely Scenario
For the sake of clarity, I don't believe the poll numbers for Obama right now anymore than I do the number for Ron Paul polling at very low numbers. I believe the media is overstating the Obama threat for the sake of excitement and so it doesn't look like Hillary has already been crowned the nominee.
That being said, I want to explore the idea of a contest between Barak Obama and Ron Paul if both should win their respective nominations.
This would be a landslide election for Ron Paul for a number of reasons:
- America is barely ready for a female President, a black President is highly unlikely at this point. You'd have a lot of Southern Democrats in particular voting for Ron Paul. A lot of white moderates would also turn on the DNC in favor Ron Paul. The Hispanic vote for a black President would be nearly non-existent insofar as the Hispanic voting block is fairly weak anyway.
- There are trust issues. Barak Obama is an unknown quantity. He has no record to back him up, no notable achievements, no great political legacy. Ron Paul on the other hand has a consistent track record of espousing the same views for 30 years.
- Low voter turnout would be another issue. Let's face it, the Democrat base isn't going to get really excited about Obama and the typical die hard Republican who thought Giuliani was just fine isn't going to get real excited about a contest with a loser Democrat. Ron Paul supporters will be the heaviest turnout there is. They'll be knocking on doors and working the phones, etc.