My Prediction Is Holding

The DOW is, as of this writing, up just over 1000 points from its Monday close. I expect things to be relatively flat this coming Monday. Trading volume will be low the before and the day of the election, especially in these otherwise turbulent times. Any announcements from the Whitehouse should be taken as purely partisan and intended to help McCain.

A side note, the DOW has fallen just over 4600 from a close of 13,930 one year ago today.

Obama as President would be both scary and highly entertaining. McCain as President will be less obviously scary but still very destructive to the basic principles of liberty so many of us hold dear. It will also be a continuation of big government neo-con thinking that currently dominates the Republican party despite the ire of their sheep like constituents who continue to vote for them because they're too afraid to abandon a party that refuses to be reformed.

We're screwed either way. Hang on folks! It's going to be a bumpy ride!

Was Jesus A Socialist?

This question seems to be on the minds of many as of late. As many 43 of my last 100 blog visits (at the time of this writing) were from people searching some variant of "Was Jesus a socialist?" That led them to something I posted in August of 2005 on this very topic.

Since it seems to be so interesting, let's cover the topic again.

Was Jesus a socialist? YES! Give money to the poor, take care of those who are unable to take care of themselves, love your neighbor, etc. There was some communal living mentioned in the New Testament as well.

I've heard people use Jesus' example to justify government socialism. Ohhhh, we have to take care of the poor, the hurting, the sick, etc. It's our CHRISTIAN DUTY! But they've got it all wrong. The socialism that was advocated by Jesus and the apostles was always VOLUNTARY.

Give from your heart or God doesn't honor it all all. The giving that Jesus advocated was never to be done by force which is the only way that government does things.

Those of you reading this that want to use a Biblical example to justify more government in our lives in the name of Christian charity (my regular readers know better) just stop and think for a moment and go read your Bible and see what it really says.

Get Paid To Go Home

According to this story in El Debate, illegals captured in immigration raids and returned to Mexico are getting 5000 pesos ($400 USD) by the Mexican Federal government to get back on their feet. Then, when they get back to their home state; Sinaloa in this case, the state gives them another 5000 pesos.

I'm guessing that many of them use this money to head straight back to the border to try again. The story doesn't really give an overall policy statement on who is eligible for that money. Supposedly, the money is to help them get back on their feet there in Mexico but I have no doubt that the government is well aware of the fact that they're using the money to head north again.

From other stories I have read, the amount of money being sent to Mexico from the US has fallen because our economy is down. Why wouldn't the Mexican government want to give these guy a few hundred bucks so they can go back to the US and keep sending even more money to us. The chance of them being caught in another immigration raid any time soon are pretty slim.

In other stories, I've read that many legal and illegal immigrants are returning to Mexico, Guatemala, Columbia, etc. because they're not finding enough work here.

**If you want to read the story in English, click here for a bad, but readable machine translation.

Dow Heading UP?

Given the fact that our supposedly FREE market really isn't that free at all, I expect the DOW to soar before the election for a McCain boost.

I'm not basing this on any evidence I have of market trends, etc., it's just just a baseless political prediction.

Where Are The Speculators Now?

Speculators were blamed for the housing bubble, the oil bubble, and, if you recall, the dot com bubble.

During the dot com boom, people invested in those stocks and retail traders jumped in to the market with both feet. Yes, that means you! Those people who opened up ETrade accounts and had no idea what they were doing but thought it was a good idea to start buying stocks. It was pure speculation and not based on any sound fundamentals. The transaction prices dropped significantly when trading started taking place on the internet. And eventually, that bubble burst.

After that, we had the housing boom. Oh, the glory days for property owners. Properties were being listed and offers would be submitted within hours. It was a buying frenzy. People would buy houses and turn around and sell them within weeks or even days at significant profit. Speculators once again were blamed for driving prices up to unrealistic levels. As it happens in all bubbles, it burst.

Then we had the oil boom. When oil hit the $100/barrel mark we thought it couldn't go much higher, but it did. $110! $120! $130! Finally it hit the ceiling at $147.25. Then, lo and behold, the bubble burst.

Today, despite the fact that OPEC has promised to cut production, the price of oil dropped.

Where are the speculators now? If the speculators really have as much power as the media and people like Greenspan and Bernanke say they do, the bubbles would not burst so quickly and prices would not fall so fast.

In reality, speculative buyers in any market must have speculative sellers. A seller sells because he believes that something he's holding will go down in value if he continues to hold it. Speculative buyers think it's going to continue to go up. Without willing sellers, speculators would have nothing to buy so why do we blame the speculators?

The oil speculators have no power to keep prices up. They are not sitting in huge conference rooms together figuring out how to keep prices rising. They are individuals, fund managers, etc. who are riding a wave of market emotion and trying to make a profit.

When market bubbles burst, someone is losing money. But who? Usually it's the people who got in to the frenzy closest to the end.

The oil bubble burst because we're entering a global recession and demand is falling rapidly. The speculators are shorting oil futures. Fine. They see the hand writing on the wall. But they're selling short to people who believe that oil will go back up. Again, there are two sides to a transaction but we only blame half of those responsible.

Some other time, I'll get in to the Keynsian boom/bust cycle and how it could be avoided.

What Would You Do?

Your elementary school kids come home from from their first day of class and say, "Mom and dad! Guess what? Ms. Foxboro is now Mr. Foxboro! But I don't understand, how can a man become a woman?"

It happened in Vacaville, CA.

It's just one more reason to pull your kids out of public school.

What A Wonderful Bailout!

Wow, the Feds were RIGHT! This bailout is solving all of our problems with market stability! Hey, just because the DOW is down over 400 points TODAY and London is having a really bad day too doesn't mean ANYTHING at all. The Feds did the right thing. They are smarter than us you know.

The American people were just dead wrong about the bailout. We have achieved the "market stability" that Bush and Pelosi pushed through and that McCain and Obama both agreed with.

Aren't you glad that American is safe in the hands of these people?

On the bright side, there are a lot of politicians right now cowering in fear in dark corners of their offices shaking at the prospect of getting booted out of office as their phones are ringing off the hooks as angry Americans call them screaming, "What the hell have you done to my country? I told you this was a bad idea!"

Down If They Do! Down If They Don't!

The DOW took a hit of almost 350 points today over fears that the proposed bailout plan won't be enough to stop a recession.

To why try to pass another socialist bailout plan then? Anyone who voted yes for this will be targeted for elimination in the next election. They defied their constituency. It will be a lightening rod issue for years to come.